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		  	<h1>A 10 Chart Look At The State of The U.S. Labor Market</h1>
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		  		<li>By <strong><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/author/admin/" title="Posts by admin" rel="author">admin</a></strong></li>
		  		<li>&bull;  &nbsp; October 5, 2014</li>
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		</aside>		  	<p>Friday
s <a title="U.S. Economy Adds 248k Jobs In September [CHARTS]" href="http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/10/u-s-economy-adds-248k-jobs-september/" target="_blank">top-line employment number came in at +248K</a>, about 38K above what analysts were expecting.</p>
<p>The report led some Wall Street economists to label it 
the perfect employment report.
<p>Was it?
s a review of the labor market
in 10 charts.</p>
<p>Monthly Growth in Jobs</p>
<p>Friday
s net <a title="ADP Sees 213k Jobs Added In September [CHARTS]" href="http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/10/adp-sees-213k-jobs-added-september/" target="_blank">new jobs</a> number of +248K makes it 9 months out of the past 12 of above-200K jobs.
 The growth in the 3Q was one of the best in a long time, representing only a slight drop from the very strong Q2 2014 numbers (gray horizontal lines represent the average growth for the given quarter).</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_MM-Employment-Growth.jpg"><img class="wp-image-427100 size-full" src="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_MM-Employment-Growth.jpg" alt="MM Employment Growth labor market" width="1065" height="656" /></a></p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">(c) ValueWalk</p>
<p><strong>Labor market 
 Year over Year Growth in Jobs<br /></strong></p>
<p>The monthly jobs numbers are the most often quoted, but generally are less indicative of <a title="Fed Forecasts Sub-3% Economy for the Next Three Years" href="http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/09/fed-economic-forecasts/" target="_blank">broad economic trends</a>.
s a look at the year-over-year (Y/Y) jobs growth figures.</p>
<p>In September, Y/Y jobs growth accelerated to 1.9%, closing in on the 2% threshold.</p>
<p>The acceleration belays some analysts
 concerns that the labor market was ready to decelerate.
 In fact, the labor market troughed in February 2014 at 1.6%, and has since accelerated throughout the remainder of 2014.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_2-YY-Growth-in-Employment.jpg"><img class="wp-image-427101 size-full" src="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_2-YY-Growth-in-Employment.jpg" alt="2 YY Growth in Employment labor market" width="1065" height="656" /></a></p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">labor market (c) ValueWalk</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_3-Zoomed-YY-Employment-Growth.jpg"><img class="wp-image-427102 size-full" src="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_3-Zoomed-YY-Employment-Growth.jpg" alt="3 Zoomed YY Employment Growth labor market" width="1065" height="656" /></a></p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">labor market (c) ValueWalk</p>
<p><strong>Labor market 
 How Does the Current Employment Situation Compare to Past Business Cycles?</strong></p>
<p>The M/M and Y/Y employment growth figures beg the question: How does the current recovery compare to past recoveries?</p>
<p>The following graphic has that comparison.</p>
<p>Overall, the current recovery that began in 2008 is the slowest in at least the past 60 years.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_4-Total-Employment-Change-from-Peak-1948-to-Today-.jpg"><img class="wp-image-427103 size-full" src="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_4-Total-Employment-Change-from-Peak-1948-to-Today-.jpg" alt="4 Total Employment Change from Peak, 1948 to Today" width="1065" height="725" /></a></p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">labor market (c) ValueWalk</p>
<p><strong>Worker Earnings</strong></p>
<p>An oft-discussed aspect of the current recovery is the moderate condition of wage growth.
 The issue is that at this point of the economic recovery wage growth should be closer to 3% Y/Y growth as opposed to the current 2%.</p>
<p>Interesting, September
s numbers provided no evidence of wage growth expanding beyond 2% anytime soon.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_5-Average-Hourly-Earnings-2007-to-2014.jpg"><img class="wp-image-427104 size-full" src="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_5-Average-Hourly-Earnings-2007-to-2014.jpg" alt="5 Average Hourly Earnings, 2007 to 2014" width="1065" height="656" /></a></p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">(c) ValueWalk</p>
<p><strong>Part-time Employment</strong></p>
<p>The current recovery has been weak by many measures, including part-time employment.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_6-Employed-Part-Time-for-Economic-Reasons.jpg"><img class="wp-image-427105 size-full" src="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_6-Employed-Part-Time-for-Economic-Reasons.jpg" alt="6 Employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons" width="1065" height="656" /></a></p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">(c) ValueWalk</p>
<p>The following looks at part-time employment by business cycle.
 Overall, although part-time employment since January 2008 declined to 45% in September from 48% in August, it
s still 45%.
s 45% more part-time workers than there were in January 2008!</p>
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<p><strong>Full-time Employment</strong></p>
<p>In connection with the part-time employment numbers is the full-time picture.</p>
<p>The full-time employment picture is much less positive than other indicators, with the total count of <a title="Part Time Workers Add to BLS Jobs Data Confusion" href="http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/09/part-time-workers-add-bls-jobs-data-confusion/" target="_blank">full-time workers</a> still about 1% fewer than there were in January 2008.
s 6 1/2 years and full-time employees are still below where they were at the housing peak.</p>
<p>On the one hand this certainly points to a potential for lots of room to grow.</p>
<p>On the other hand, this should pose some analysts to question whether the U.S. economy has gone through some structural changes, such as a shift to part-time employment because of pernicious incentives provided through Obamacare.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_7-Full-time-Employment-Change-by-Business-Cycle.jpg"><img class="wp-image-427106 size-full" src="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_7-Full-time-Employment-Change-by-Business-Cycle.jpg" alt="7 Full-time Employment Change by Business Cycle" width="1065" height="701" /></a></p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">(c) ValueWalk</p>
<p><strong>Unemployment Rate</strong></p>
<p>The following graphic inspect the unemployment rate by economic cycle.</p>
<p>Overall, although the unemployment rate declined to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008, the current recovery is still one of the slowest on record, besting only the 1974 recovery at this point.</p>
<p>In terms of where the <a title="The Fed Was Right to Drop the Unemployment Rate Target" href="http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/03/fed-right-drop-unemployment-rate-target/" target="_blank">unemployment</a> rate is relative to where it was in the previous peak, the unemployment rate is still 20% higher than where it was in January 2008.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_8-Unemployment-Rate-by-Economic-Cycle.jpg"><img class="wp-image-427107 size-full" src="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/d4b33_8-Unemployment-Rate-by-Economic-Cycle.jpg" alt="8 Unemployment Rate by Economic Cycle" width="1065" height="656" /></a></p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">(c) ValueWalk</p>
<p><strong>Labor Force Participation Rate</strong></p>
<p>The next graphic inspects labor force participation by economic cycle.</p>
<p>Overall, the jump in the 
Not in the Labor Force
 number from August to September explains the better-than-expected unemployment rate.</p>
<p>The number of individuals not in the labor force grows naturally with the aging and expanding of the population base.</p>
<p>The issue is that it is, according to some, growing too fast.</p>
<p>If the rapid increase in individuals not in the workforce is due to parents
choosing to spend time with children, then that
s probably a good thing for the future of the American workforce.</p>
<p>On the other hand, if it
s people
unable to find work, or simply not satisfied with the available work, then that
s a different signal.</p>
<p>So far, the statistics point to some of both.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/3b435_9-Not-in-the-Labor-Force.jpg"><img class="wp-image-427108 size-full" src="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/3b435_9-Not-in-the-Labor-Force.jpg" alt="9 Not in the Labor Force" width="1065" height="656" /></a></p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">(c) ValueWalk</p>
<p><strong><br /></strong><strong>Employment by Firm Size</strong></p>
<p>The final of the ten graphics is job growth by firm size.</p>
<p>The following is the <a title="Citi Shadow Unemployment Number Has Interest Rate Implications" href="http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/02/citi-shadow-unemployment-number/" target="_blank">ADP numbers</a>.</p>
<p>Overall, as indicated, small and medium sized businesses have generally been on a decelerating trend for fourth months now, while large firms are accelerating hiring.</p>
<p>Economy-watchers and investors will certainly need to pay attention to this trend and consider the consequences should this trend continue.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/3b435_10-Job-gains-by-firm-size.fw_.png"><img class="wp-image-427109 size-full" src="http://www.eumorningpost.com/wp-content/plugins/RSSPoster_PRO/cache/3b435_10-Job-gains-by-firm-size.fw_.png" alt="10 Job gains by firm size.fw" width="1456" height="773" /></a></p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">(c) ValueWalk</p>
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